A live term structure of the price that Polymarket and Kalshi traders are pricing for Bitcoin right now. Two independent prediction markets, read as one curve from spot to year-end.
Live from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated through the day. Source: Perception (perception.to).
The dark line is Bitcoin’s recorded spot price, from January 1 through today. The dashed line extends to the forward points where each market prices Bitcoin: Polymarket by month-end and year-end, Kalshi by year-end. Each forward point carries a box-and-whisker band. The box spans the 25th to 75th percentile of the market’s implied distribution, and the whiskers reach the 10th and 90th. A wide band means traders disagree about where price lands. A tight band means they mostly agree.
A term structure lines up the price of the same asset across different settlement dates in one view. In rates and commodities, it maps expectations over time at a glance. Here it does the same for Bitcoin: spot today, implied month-end, implied year-end, read left to right as a single curve. An upward slope means the market is pricing higher prices ahead. A flat slope means the market is pricing roughly today’s level to hold.
Both are prediction markets where people trade contracts on future events, including where Bitcoin’s price settles by a given date. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange; Polymarket is a large crypto-native market. Each contract’s price moves between 0 and 1 and reads as the market’s implied probability of that outcome. For each horizon we read the full ladder of Bitcoin price contracts, weight every strike by its traded probability, and take the midpoint. That midpoint is the market-implied price shown on the chart.
Spot is the price of Bitcoin right now. The implied price is where traders are collectively willing to bet it settles later. The two diverge when the market prices in a move, and the gap between them, shown as the delta on each forward point, is the market’s own view of the path ahead. Perception reports that view and makes no price call of its own.
Perception surfaces the expectations that Polymarket and Kalshi traders are pricing. Nothing on this page is a Perception forecast, a price target, or investment advice.
Perception reads how media, analysts, and markets talk about Bitcoin across 1,000+ sources, in real time, for your team and your AI.
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