Track record
Sentiment vendors sell black-box scores. We publish the tests ours has to pass, the numbers they produced, and the one that came back null. Every claim below is a measurement of recorded history; none of them is a forecast.
Trailing price returns explain about 68% of the Fear & Greed Index and about 21% of the Perception Index. A sentiment score that restates price adds nothing to it; this test measures exactly that.
METHOD · Regression of daily index values on trailing BTC returns, matched windows for both indices.
Shifts in the Perception Index lead broader market-sentiment shifts by roughly three days (t = 2.45). This is a measured lead on sentiment, and it is the only lead-time claim we make.
METHOD · Cross-correlation with significance testing across the full daily history.
One score every day since February 2018, computed from the archived corpus with the same formula that runs today. Every historical value can be re-derived from stored articles.
METHOD · Full corpus archived; the index is recomputable from raw scored articles for any date.
Across 455 analyzed earnings calls, the numeric directness score (Evade-o-Meter) showed no relationship with subsequent returns. We report it as a communication-style descriptor, never a signal. Management tone cohorts did separate in the same sample, and the sample is small (66 calls in the cautious bucket), so tone ships as a measurement with that caveat attached.
METHOD · 455 earnings calls, 37 companies, returns measured at 7 and 30 days; full write-up in the earnings backtest.
See it yourself
The Perception Index and BTC price over the last 90 days, both normalized. Drag the slider to shift the index forward in time and watch the correlation readout respond.
Live data: the Perception Index (public endpoint) and BTC daily closes, last 90 days, Pearson correlation on levels at the shift you choose. It describes this window of history and nothing more. The separately validated result, on a longer sample with significance testing, is the ~3 day sentiment-shift lead above.
The full source methodology, the daily sentiment archive, and API access to the same data every number on this page is computed from.
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